【econ20181206】
宏观经济学研讨会 （总第241期）
【时间】2018年4月25日（周三）12：15－13：45 【地点】明商0202教室 【主讲】陈小亮 中国社科院经济研究所 【主题】new evidence on the aftermath of financial crises（christina d. romer & david h. romer, american economic review, 2017） 【点评】周璇 中国人民大学经济学院助理教授 【摘要】this paper examines the aftermath of postwar financial crises in advanced countries. we construct a new semiannual series on financial distress in 24 oecd countries for the period 1967–2012. the series is based on assessments of the health of countries’ financial systems from a consistent, real-time narrative source, and classifies financial distress on a relatively fine scale. we find that the average decline in output following a financial crisis is statistically significant and persistent, but only moderate in size. more important, we find that the average decline is sensitive to the specification and sample, and that the aftermath of crises is highly variable across major episodes. a simple forecasting exercise suggests that one important driver of the variation is the severity and persistence of financial distress itself. at the same time, we find little evidence of nonlinearities in the relationship between financial distress and the aftermaths of crises. 【主持】陈彦斌 教授 人大宏观经济学研讨会（macro workshop）旨在追踪宏观经济学国际最新进展，倡导构建符合国情的动态优化模型，并使用计算机模拟研究经济增长、收入分配和宏观政策等中国宏观经济重大问题。 联系人：刘哲希 email：macro_workshop@163.com 资料下载：www.docin.com/mydoc-88265459-1.html 更多讲座信息请访问：econ.ruc.edu.cn，www.yanjiuyuan.com.cn。
中国人民大学经济学院
