【econ20181212】
宏观经济学研讨会 （总第247期）
【时间】2018年10月10日（周三）12：15－13：45 【地点】明商0202教室 【主讲】刘哲希 对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院讲师 【主题】artificial intelligence and the modern productivity paradox：a clash of expectations and statistics（erik brynjolfsson et al., nber working paper, 2017） 【点评】李三希 中国人民大学经济学院副教授 【摘要】we live in an age of paradox. systems using artificial intelligence match or surpass human level performance in more and more domains, leveraging rapid advances in other technologies and driving soaring stock prices. yet measured productivity growth has declined by half over the past decade, and real income has stagnated since the late 1990s for a majority of americans. we describe four potential explanations for this clash of expectations and statistics: false hopes, mismeasurement, redistribution, and implementation lags. while a case can be made for each explanation, we argue that lags have likely been the biggest contributor to the paradox. the most impressive capabilities of ai, particularly those based on machine learning, have not yet diffused widely. more importantly, like other general purpose technologies, their full effects won’t be realized until waves of complementary innovations are developed and implemented. the adjustment costs, organizational changes, and new skills needed for successful ai can be modeled as a kind of intangible capital. a portion of the value of this intangible capital is already reflected in the market value of firms. however, going forward, national statistics could fail to measure the full benefits of the new technologies and some may even have the wrong sign.
【主持】陈彦斌 教授
人大宏观经济学研讨会（macro workshop）旨在追踪宏观经济学国际最新进展，倡导构建符合国情的动态优化模型，并使用计算机模拟研究经济增长、收入分配和宏观政策等中国宏观经济重大问题。 联系人：王兆瑞 email：macro_workshop@163.com 资料下载：www.docin.com/mydoc-88265459-1.html 更多讲座信息请访问：econ.ruc.edu.cn，www.yanjiuyuan.com.cn。
中国人民大学经济学院 中国经济改革与发展研究院
