近日，美国kennesaw state university刘学鹏教授，巴西sao paulo school of economics，emanuel ornelas教授，中国人民大学经济学院副教授石慧敏的合作论文“the trade impact of covid-19 pandemic”在world economy正式发表。
内容摘要
using a gravity-like approach, we study how covid-19 deaths and lockdown policies affected countries' imports from china during 2020. we find that a country's own covid-19 deaths and lockdowns significantly reduced its imports from china, suggesting that the negative demand effects prevailed over the negative supply effects of the pandemic. on the contrary, covid-19 deaths in the main trading partners of a country (excluding china) induce more imports from china, partially offsetting countries' own effects. the net effect of moving from the pre-pandemic situation to another where the main variables are evaluated at their 2020 mean is, on average, a reduction of nearly 10% in imports from china. there is also significant heterogeneity. for example, the negative own effects of the pandemic vanish when we restrict the sample to medical goods and are significantly mitigated for products with a high ‘work-from-home’share or a high contract intensity for products exported under processing trade and for capital goods. we also find that deaths and lockdowns in previous months tend to increase current imports from china, partially offsetting the contemporaneous trade loss, suggesting that trade is not simply ‘destroyed,’ but partially ‘postponed’.
作者简介
石慧敏，中国人民大学经济学院副教授，博士生导师，中国人民大学杰出学者计划青年a类。她的学术成果发表在journal of comparative economics，world economy, international review of economics and finance，empirical economics，review of development economics, economic modelling，emerging markets finance and trade,以及《世界经济》《经济理论与经济管理》《国际贸易问题》等同行评议学术期刊上。她主持参与过多项国家自然科学基金、国家社会科学基金以及校内科研项目。同时担任过国内国外多个同行评议学术期刊的匿名审稿人。她的政策评论文章发表在voxeu、光明网、《华夏时报》、《社会科学报》、cgtn等媒体。